CLN Editor’s Commentary: While this research is fascinating and provides a potentially more solid scientific foundation for the so-called “Hundredth Monkey” phenomenon, I question the conclusion “…that when just 10 percent of the population holds an unshakable belief, their belief will always be adopted by the majority of the society.” How then do the authors account for the diversity of religion in many nations, where well over 10% of the population can hold deep and unshakable religious convictions? While this is not addressed, the findings are nevertheless fascinating. – Jonathan@CLN
(SCNARC) Scientists at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute have found that when just 10 percent of the population holds an unshakable belief, their belief will always be adopted by the majority of the society. The scientists, who are members of the Social Cognitive Networks Academic Research Center (SCNARC) at Rensselaer, used computational and analytical methods to discover the tipping point where a minority belief becomes the majority opinion. The finding has implications for the study and influence of societal interactions ranging from the spread of innovations to the movement of political ideals.
“When the number of committed opinion holders is below 10 percent, there is no visible progress in the spread of ideas. It would literally take the amount of time comparable to the age of the universe for this size group to reach the majority,” said SCNARC Director Boleslaw Szymanski, the Claire and Roland Schmitt Distinguished Professor at Rensselaer. “Once that number grows above 10 percent, the idea spreads like flame.”
As an example, the ongoing events in Tunisia and Egypt appear to exhibit a similar process, according to Szymanski. “In those countries, dictators who were in power for decades were suddenly overthrown in just a few weeks.”
The findings were published in the July 22, 2011, early online edition of the journal Physical Review E in an article titled “Social consensus through the influence of committed minorities.”
Listen to Prof. Szymanski describe this research on radio, at Sceptically Speaking.