NBA’s popularity is surging owing to the all-star events and young superstars, such as Luka Doncic and Ben Simmons. Many believe that it will eventually replace the NFL as the sport of choice in America. The basketball season went on hiatus on March 11 because of the coronavirus outbreak, officially resuming on July 30 with officials concluding that it’s in the best interest of everyone to finish out. Teams have resumed playing, but fans haven’t been allowed at games.
Wagering on the outcome is a good way of enjoying the game. You can do it for the thrill or to land a nice prize. It’s your choice. When it comes down to NBA betting, there are plenty of opportunities. It might seem as if the odds are against you but, when it’s done right, betting can guarantee you a profit. You’re lucky enough to have a thriving sporting scene, so take advantage of it. Success requires more than learning what to do. You must also learn what not to do.
Mistakes are inevitable, unfortunately. Even punters with experience succumb to error for the simple reason that they weren’t paying enough attention. In this article, we’ll shed some light on the most common mistakes made when betting on the NBA. Try to see if you can recognize any of them.
#1 Betting on your favorite NBA team even when the spread favors the underdog
If you’re like everyone else, you’re emotionally invested in a team. Perhaps you’re a big fan of the Golden State Warriors, enduring the highs and lows that come with cheering for your favorite team. You know your team better than any other one in the league, so you decide to bet, despite the fact the spread favors the underdog. This is a huge mistake. Your favorite doesn’t stand a chance to beat the point spread. At the end of the game, you’ll have an unpleasant surprise.
Even if your intuition strongly suggests that the favorite team will report a victory, don’t bet based on your intuition alone. If the opposing basketball team has a decent chance to win, it can be regarded as a good bet. The underdog doesn’t necessarily have to win. More exactly, they can lose by a margin that’s lower than the spread. Nonetheless, games are unpredictable, which means that anything can happen. Generally speaking, it’s not a good idea to pick against the NBA lines. Determine who is more likely to win the game based on the odds.
In a perfect world, every basketball player and team would play and give everything they’ve got. Unfortunately, we don’t live in a perfect world. Performance depends on a wide range of factors, including but not limited to the frequency with which the team plays, who they’re playing against, the percentage of rebounds, and so on. Motivation plays an important role in NBA success, so it shouldn’t be excluded from the equation.
#2 Not studying injury situations
Injuries aren’t uncommon when it comes down to sports. Anything from a simple scratch to an anterior cruciate ligament injury can put someone out of the game. If you frequently watch basketball games, you’ve certainly seen players get injured on the court. It’s paramount to consider injuries before placing a bet on your phone or computer. Bookmakers are keeping a close eye on the news and so should you. Even though injury information is more often than not inaccurate or insufficient, you should better pay close attention.
You must be up to date with key information because injuries are one of the variables that can kill or save your bet. When taking a close look at the numbers of the lineup, know who is playing. Sometimes, you don’t know if a certain player is going to be present on the court until the game begins. Basketball teams don’t want to disclose injury information because they don’t want to give a competitive advantage, even if the details get out some way or the other. This means that you’ll have to do the extra work.
#3 Completely ignoring possessions per game
Possession is undoubtedly the most important metric as far as understanding basketball analytics is concerned. It refers to the time a team gains offensive possession of the ball. It’s commonly assumed that 2 NBA teams have roughly the same number of possessions in a match, so it’s fairly simple to calculate the offensive and defensive efficiency. Don’t make the mistake of ignoring possessions per event. While it mightn’t seem important to you, it bears weight when it comes down to the outcome of the game. If the teams have a high number of possessions, it’s highly likely that they will score a lot of points when they meet.
Per possession statistics enable you to place teams on an equal footing. Instead of just comparing per game statistics, you should look into possessions per game, which are available at various websites. You won’t have it all figured out by just checking out the points scored, and the points allowed. Just so you know, an NBA team may play at a really fast pace and have a lot of possessions per game, but not all of them result in turnovers. To be more precise, there’s no guarantee that the team will score a lot. What matters is the ability of the player to transform the possession into points.
The NBA has changed substantially over the years, meaning that it’s a different game than it was in the old days. The increase in three-point attempts, not to mention the makes per game has led to more possessions per game. Players enjoy the luxury of big performances. You can leverage historical numbers to get an idea of how the match will evolve, but keep in mind that some teams are better than others and speed up the pace of the game. A team can miss a shot, rebound the miss, and commit a turnover. There’s no way of knowing what might happen.
